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The Demarian™ concept
How it works
Application fields / case study
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About the inventor

Welcome to the Demarian™ decision making and risk analysis support tool

“Risk varies inversely with knowledge”
Irving Fisher (1867-1947)

To successfully address uncertain and thus risky situations faced in today's fast changing environment, the most important issue in risk managagement is to increase our knowledge before we predict the future and take decision.

Taking this into account, Demarian™ is an easy to use tool to collect expert opinions in your decision making process. Experts thereby can be independed professionals, but also specialists within your organisation. As the system allows experts to stay anonoymous, the tools can also be used within your own organisations to identify true opinions among colleagues. Once the expert opinions are collected (either through a one-stage or multi-stage data collection process using Delphi method), the data is being analysed by Demarian™ Analysts. You will then receive a report outlining future predictions based on the data collected.

Demarian™ contributes to managerial decisions by two primary features:
  • integrating experts opinions, thus enlarging and improving the knowledge base future predictions are based on
  • using simulation to predict the likelihood of a situation taking place
Based on the input of experts, the final reports will give you precise information on the likelihood that a situation will take place (e.g. based on expert opinions on product sales, the probability of your product to cover the development and marketing costs is 67%). Please visit our case study page to get a better idea on how Demarian™ can support you in your decision making and risk analysis.

[maybe integrate Delphi method later, meaning multiple feedback rounds in the expert data collection phase]

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